The Golden State Warriors (44-13) hope to continue their recent surge and head into the NBA All-Star break on a high note when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers (31-26) on Wednesday as solid road favorites.
Then again, so do the Blazers, who have lost the past 11 meetings with the Warriors, going 5-6 against the spread in those games, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.
Point spread: The Warriors opened as seven-point favorites; the total is at 225.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 112.0-105.0, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)
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Why the Warriors can cover the spread
Golden State has won three games in a row both straight up and ATS following a two-game skid, with an average margin of victory of 27 points.
The NBA champions are coming off a 129-83 rout of the Denver Nuggets on Monday, covering the spread easily as 16-point home favorites after leading just 25-24 at the end of the first quarter.
The Warriors shot 58.4 percent from the field, including 42.3 percent from three-point range, and they outscored the Nuggets 67-38 after halftime.
Why the Trail Blazers can cover the spread
Just a week ago, Golden State had dropped three of four SU and ATS to prove this team is mortal.
The losses were bad too, falling to the Utah Jazz on the road by 30 points and to the Oklahoma City Thunder at home by 20, with a seven-point loss to the Denver Nuggets sandwiched in between. In other words, the Warriors are beatable.
Before losing to the hot Jazz at home as four-point home favorites on Sunday, the Blazers had won two straight SU and ATS against the Charlotte Hornets and Sacramento Kings.
Smart betting pick
Portland managed to cover the spread in the latest meeting with Golden State on December 11 as an 8.5-point road underdog in a 111-104 loss. Before that though, the Blazers failed to cover each of the previous three meetings, losing those games by an average of 20 points.
Two of those three games were played at Portland, and the Warriors have been just as good on the road (22-6 SU) as they have been at home (22-7) this season.
Take Golden State to win this one by double digits and cover.
NBA betting trends
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on the road.
The total has gone over in four of Portland’s last five games at home.
All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.